Counting Outs and Calculating Percentages in Texas Holdem
No-Limit Texas holdem poker is a very mathematical game that requires solid knowledge off odds and percentages to be successful at the highest levels. One step to developing that knowledge is learning to count outs and calculating your percentage to hit your hand. Not everyone is a maths genius so I will devise a few examples of counting outs and then present you with a simple way to estimate you percentage of hitting your hand after the flop and turn for Texas holdem.
An out in poker is a card that is needed in order to complete a hand. If you are on gutshot straight draw and need a five to complete your hand, your outs are the four fives in the deck. It is important that you know what your outs are in order to determine the percentage that your hand will hit by the river. Let’s look at a few examples.
When you have four cards to a flush after the flop, then you have nine outs in order to complete your hand. If you flop an open ended straight draw, then you have eight outs in order to complete your hand. Not all counting of outs is as simple as straight draws and flush draws. Let’s take a deeper look at counting outs with a few examples.
The flop is Jc-10c-9h and you hold Ac-Qc. This is a very powerful draw. First, you have a nut flush draw and an open ended straight draw. Any king or eight will give you a straight. How many outs do you have? You have 15 outs. Many of you probably said 17. Remember that one of the kings and one of the eights are clubs and have already been accounted for as outs for your flush. This reduces your outs from 17 to 15. Let’s look at another more complicated example.
There are also “potential outs”. Potential outs are cards that may win the hand for you but are not a lock to win the hand. A great example would be a hand in the big blind of Ah-7h. The flop comes 4h-5c-6h. You are holding a nut flush draw and an open ended straight draw. A potential out in this situation is an ace. In this spot, if an ace hits the board, you may win the hand. Then again, it may not depending of if you opponent has an ace with a better kicker. In this scenario, you have 18 outs. That’s nine hearts; the three non-heart three’s, the three non-heart nine’s and the three remaining aces.
Mixed Texas Hold’em
Outs are not just important on the flop, but also on the turn. There are times that the turn will give you additional outs to hit your hand, but you need to be looking for them. For example, you are holding the As-Qs and the flop hits Ks-6s-2c. After the flop you have 9 outs for the flush and three potential outs if an ace hits. The turn falls the Qd and now you have picked up 2 more outs to win the hand if another queen falls on the river. Another example would be you are in the big blind with Jc-10c with a flop of 9c-4c-2d. You have 9 outs for the flush. The turn falls the 8s and now you have picked up 6 additional outs for the straight. Again, you only pick up 6 outs as opposed to eight because the Qc and the 7c are counted in your flush outs.
When counting out, be aware of the texture of the board. Keep an eye out for sudden changes that can spell disaster. For example, you are holding Qc-Jc on a flop of Kd-10s-3h. Right now you have an open ended straight draw and 8 potential outs to win. The river falls the 6h. Now, you still have an open ended straight draw, but there is a possibility that your opponent has picked up a flush draw. Now, two of your outs can cause you problems. If the Ah or the 9h fall on the river, you may be outdrawn by a flush. In that type of situation, you will have to be careful at the river.
Counting outs is the first step in learning how to calculate your percentage of making your hand by the river. As you become more experienced, you will encounter situations where knowing your percentages will make the difference between proceeding with a hand and throwing it into the muck. A simple way to figure out percentages is known as the 4 and 2 method. Phil Gordon mentioned this method in his final table DVD and it is probably the simplest method to teach someone how to figure out percentages.
First, after the flop you want to know what your percentage is to make your hand by the river. Count the number of outs to make your hand and then multiply it by 4. If you have 9 outs after the flop, the percentage to hit your hand by the river is 36%. If you have 12 outs, then the percentage to hit your hand is 48%.
Check to see whether you picked up additional outs after the turn. If so, add these outs to your pre-flop out. Next, take the number of outs and multiply it by 2. If you have 12 outs, then you have a 24 percent chance to hit your hand. 9 outs leave you with an 18% chance to make your hand on the river.
Some of the concepts above may seem a little difficult to grasp at first. My suggestion would be to take a deck of card and deal out some simulated hands at random to practice counting outs. After you feel comfortable with counting out, then proceed to calculating hand percentages. Counting outs and calculating percentages are the first steps to being able to calculate pot odds in Texas holdem games. Once you have mastered these skills you can move forward into the advanced skill of pot odds.
